今週のPGAツアーは「ザ・ホンダクラシック」。セルヒオ・ガルシア、アーニー・エルス、カミロ・ビジェガス、ローリー・マッキロイなどインターナショナルな顔ぶれが揃った。
その舞台となるのが「PGAナショナル」。ジャック・ニクラウスが再設計したコースで、「メジャー級」に難しいと言われています。。。
と言われても、いまいちイメージが沸かなかったので、とにかくいろんなデータをかき集めてみました。
その結果、優勝候補が数名挙がってきました。そして、なぜ昨年エルスが優勝できたのかが納得できました。かなりマニアックな内容になるかもしれないので、興味のない方はスルーしちゃってください。
まず、昨年の大会から振り返ってみると...
・優勝：アーニー・エルス(6アンダー)
・予選通過ライン：4オーバー
・アンダーパーの数：14名
・コース難易度：9位(54大会中)
⇒平均＋1.825ストローク
と、オーバーパーの平均ストロークを見ただけで如何に難関だったかが分かりますよね。パー70のコースでパー5が2つしかないというのもあるかもしれません。ちなみに、ここよりも難易度の高かったコースはというと...
・ロイヤルバークデール(全英オープン)
・オークランドヒルズ(全米プロ選手権)
・トーレーパインズ(ビュイック・インビテーショナル)
・ミュアフィールドビレッジ(ザ・メモリアル)
・TPCソーグラス(ザ・プレーヤーズ)
など、一流コース(大会)ばかり。更に、2008年のスタッツを見ていくと、
恐ろしい。これは昨年の予選通過ラインが4オーバーは納得できます。
更に、15〜17番ホールは「ベアー・トラップ」と言われていて、
設計した「ジャックの罠」とも言われています。画像にもあるとおり、
「It should be won or lost right here(ここで勝敗が決まるだろう)」
「Three great finishing holes on the PGA TOUR(PGAツアーでも有数の終盤3ホール)」
と、ホール難易度が2⇒5⇒3番目となっているようです。15、17番が水に囲まれたパー3、更に最後のパー5、18番が上記の通りなので...メジャー級と言われるのも納得できます。
昨年、自身3度メジャーを勝っているエルスは「メジャーで優勝するために求められるショットを毎回打たなければ勝てない」と言っていた。では、誰が(どういった選手が)優勝候補になるのか?
当然、実績からみればエルスもその一人だろう。しかし、昨年のエルスのスタッツを見るとある傾向が見えてきて、他にも数名候補が出てきた(ここからは予想屋気分で)。
このコースの大きな特徴が「強風」と「バミューダ芝」。要は、
・強風に負けないロングドライブ、2打目を打てて、
・パーオン率(GIR)が高い選手
エルスは全英オープンを勝っていて、昨年の大会ではGIRが4位、平均飛距離が10位に入り優勝を裏付けている。現に、この大会の過去10年の優勝者の顔ぶれを見ると、6名がメジャーチャンピオン。メンタル的にも、「ここぞ」という時の一打で決められる選手が台頭してくるのだろう。他のPGAツアーの大会より更にGIRが重要な指標になってくる。
ということで、今年のPGAツアーでGIRが高い選手、そして飛距離のある選手を調べてみた。その中に優勝候補がいそうな気がします。
いました!ブー・ウィークリー。国の名誉がかかったライダーカップという舞台でさえ、この男には小さすぎたほど強靭なハートを持っている。そして、2007年のこの大会でも2位に入っています。優勝候補筆頭と言っておきましょう!
そして、カミロ・ビジェガス、ジャスティン・レナード、エルスも上位候補ですよね。特にビジェガスは先週のWGCアクセンチュアマッチプレーで優勝したジェフ・オギルビーと2&1の接戦を演じ、昨季終盤に見せた凄まじい集中力が今季も見られそう。フロリダ大学出身で、後押ししてくれるギャラリーも多いでしょう。
もちろん、ゴルフにドラマはつき物で、終わってみないと分かりません。ただ、全英オープンがそうであるように、このようなコースセッティングはフロックで勝ててしまうほど甘くないのも事実。
ということで、予想の方は...
◎ブー・ウィークリー
○カミロ・ビジェガス
▲アーニー・エルス
△ジャスティン・レナード、ローリー・マッキロイ
優勝者なんてそんな簡単に当たりません。でも今回分かったことは、データをかき集めるとゴルフの違った楽しみ方ができるということ。
数字苦手なんですけどね・・・。
===========================================
※こんな動画もありました。「ベアートラップ」の一つ、16番を完璧に攻略した昨年のエルス。
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